Busy Week Head – Key Events, Issues And Market Impact In The Next Five Days


From ZeroHedge:

The week ahead will be driven by the heavy end-of-month data schedule. In addition to the usual key releases like ISM and payrolls and ECB meeting, this week we also get an FOMC meeting – though it will hardly see much more than a nod to the weaker activity data of late. For the ECB meeting a full refi but not a deposit rate cut are priced now.  Outside the FOMC and the ECB meeting there will be focus on the RBI meeting in India, with a 25bp cut priced in response to lower inflation numbers recently.

Monday 29th April

  • Japan Holiday
  • Sweden Minutes of MPC Meeting
  • Italy Business Confidence (Apr): Probably too early to reflect the end of government uncertainty. Last reading was 88.9.
  • Germany Harmonised CPI Apr (Flash): Consensus expects -0.1% mom versus +0.4% last.
  • US PCE Core Price Index (Mar): GS +0.03%. Consensus expects -0.1% versus +0.1% last.
  • US Personal Consumption (Mar): GS 0.2%. Consensus expects 0.0% versus 0.7% mom last.
  • US Personal Income (Mar): GS 0.3%. Consensus expects 0.4% mom versus 1.1% last.
  • US GS Analyst Index (April)
  • Also interesting: US Pending Homesales.

Tuesday 30th

  • Korea Industrial Production (Mar): GS +1.0% yoy, versus -9.3% yoy last.
  • United Kingdom GFK Consumer Confidence (Apr): Consensus expects -26 versus -26 last.
  • Japan Labour Market Data (Mar): Focus will be on any evidence of rising wages in response to BoJ easing. For the unemployment rate, consensus expects 4.2% versus 4.3% last.
  • Japan Industrial Production (Mar): Consensus expects 0.4% mom versus 0.6% last.
  • Spain GDP (Q1): Consensus expects -0.5% qoq versus -0.8% last.
  • Turkey CBRT Inflation Report
  • Germany Unemployment Change (Apr): Consensus expects +2k versus +13k last.
  • Germany Retail Sales (Mar): Consensus expects -0.3% mom versus 0.4% last.
  • Italy Unemployment Rate (Mar): Consensus expects 11.7% versus 11.6% last.
  • Euro area Harmonised CPI (Apr): Consensus expects 1.6% yoy versus 1.7% last.
  • United States Chicago PMI (Apr): GS 52.0. Consensus expects 52.6 versus 52.4 last.
  • United States Consumer Confidence (Apr): GS 61.0. Consensus expects 61.0 versus 59.7 last.
  • Also Interesting: Japan Retail Sales, South Africa Trade Balance, Chile Manfacturing Index and Retail Sales, Turkey Trade Balance, Taiwan GDP.

Wednesday 1st May

  • Korea Trade Balance (Apr): Consensus expects exports to rise by 2.0% yoy versus 0.4% last.
  • United Kingdom PMI – Manufacturing (Apr): Consensus expects 48.5 versus 48.3 last.
  • United States ADP Employment Change (Apr): Consensus expects 155k versus 158k last.
  • United States ISM Survey (Apr): GS 50.0. Consensus expects 51.0 versus 51.3 last.
  • United States FOMC Meeting Results: Our baseline expectation is that the FOMC statement will show only modest changes, mostly or entirely in the first paragraph discussing the weaker economy. A potential surprise would be greater emphasis on downside inflation risks.

Thursday 2nd

  • Global PMIs (April): On average, consensus expects only moderate change in the global PMI reading from last month’s releases.
  • United Kingdom Construction PMI (Apr): Consensus expects 48.0 versus 47.2 last.
  • Czech Republic Monetary Policy Meeting
  • ECB Meeting: GS and consensus expect a refi rate cut to 0.50% but not a change in the deposit rate. The press conference will be key to gauge if more easing is in the pipeline and with regards to credit policies for the periphery.
  • United States Initial Jobless Claims: Consensus expects 346k versus 339k last.
  • United States Trade Balance (Mar): GS $-40.0bn. Consensus expects $-42.2bn versus $-43.0bn last.
  • Also Interesting: Brazil Trade Balance.

Friday 3rd

  • Japan Holiday
  • India Central Bank Meeting: Following lower WPI prices and weak activity, consensus expects a cut in the repo and reverse repo rates by 25bp each to 7.25% and 6.25%.
  • Services (Apr): Consensus expects 52.4 unchanged.
  • Brazil Ind. Production (Mar): GS +1.5% mom. Consensus expects +1.2% mom versus -2.5% last.
  • US Labour Market Data (Apr): GS and consensus expect the unemployment rate at 7.6% stable. On payrolls, GS is slightly above consensus at 150k, compared to 143k and 88k in the last release.
  • United States ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey (Apr): GS 53.0. Consensus expects 54.0 versus 54.4 last.
  • Also Interesting: Norway PMI, Brazil IP, US Factory Orders.

…more at Busy Week Head – Key Events, Issues And Market Impact In The Next Five Days

More reading